Water officials are generally more level-headed than the public when it comes to the weather and the consequences it has on our water supply. But allow Luke Shawcross to be a regular person for a second and not the water resources manager at Northern Water, which is well known for its Colorado-Big Thompson (C-BT) Project that provides a significant portion of Greeley’s and Fort Collins’ water supply.
“It felt like we just went from fall to spring,” Shawcross says, not bothering to hide the wonder in his voice. “We had, what, a week or two of winter?”
This winter was, at times, mind-boggling. The state had the third warmest November, the warmest December and one of the warmest Januarys in 130 years of records, sometimes by a wide margin, according to Russ Schumacher, state climatologist with Colorado State University’s Climate Center, in a blog. All that warmth led to what he calls the state’s worst snowpack in more than 40 years.
As of March 5, water officials were hopeful for a wet spring. March is typically the snowiest month in Colorado, but even that wouldn’t save a historically bad winter, they say. The long-term forecasts didn’t look promising.
However, Shawcross says our water supply is still in good shape. That’s the consensus among all water suppliers and city utilities in the region. Shawcross’ colleague, Jeff Stahla, understands the public’s concerns but doesn’t think most water customers will notice any difference.
City of Greeley officials say drought restrictions are unlikely, but those in Fort Collins say it’s too early to tell.
It’s true that, as of early March, the snowpack in most areas was as low as 2002, the driest year on record in the state. But 2002 followed other dry years, so water storage was already low, if not downright dire, says Stahla, Northern Water’s spokesperson. Since 2013, Northern Water’s storage levels have been above average.
“Folks who have moved here in the last 10 years might be thinking that this winter is an absolute disaster,” Stahla says. “But we know that not only do we have water for this year’s high-demand season; we have the equivalent of a year’s quota just sitting in storage in Lake Granby.”
Learning from past droughts
The C-BT Project exists because people began advocating for it back in the 1920s, Stahla says. They had their worst fears confirmed during the Dust Bowl in the early 1930s.
“They knew years like this one were on the horizon,” Stahla says.
Drought restrictions, if they do go into effect, would limit outdoor watering on landscaping. But that doesn’t seem likely, says Sean Chambers, director of water and sewer for the City of Greeley.
“We’re likely to have a water supply that’s in excess of our demands,” he says.
The City of Fort Collins prefers to wait until Northern Water announces its annual water supply quota for the C-BT Project in mid-April to decide whether restrictions will be applied. The project provides 60 percent of Fort Collins’ water supply, says Mariel Miller, water conservation manager for the city. Greeley’s water sources are more widely varied.
As of press time, Northern Water couldn’t yet say what this year’s quota will be. That’s set by its board of directors.
When there’s been a drought in years past, sometimes the board has allocated more water in anticipation of farmers and cities needing it, Stahla says. This happened in 2002 and is the double whammy of a drought: The demand for water goes up because it’s not raining, even when the supply goes down.
Though the C-BT Project has been around for decades, water officials say they have 2002, in part, to thank for encouraging them to give greater consideration to conservation and the need for increased water storage.
“The 2002 and 2012 droughts were transformational in how we think about things,” Chambers says.
Is it a pattern?
Even if our current water supply is robust, officials admit they are a little worried.
The aforementioned severe drought years eventually sparked huge fires. In 2002, the Hayman Fire northwest of Colorado Springs set a record for the largest in the state’s history, which stood for nearly 20 years before the Cameron Peak Fire in Larimer County broke it in 2020, another dry year. In 2012, two forest fires broke the record for being the most destructive. A forecast from the U.S. Forest Service generally calls for above-average fire danger this summer across the state.
Water officials don’t worry too much about one drought year, but this year’s warm winter does make them wonder if it’s a developing pattern. Multi-year droughts are scary, Chambers says.
“If we were at 50 percent snowpack and then we had another dry year, we’d be in a different spot,” he says.
There’s no doubt the climate is warming. Snowmaking didn’t become a common practice at ski resorts until the late ’80s.
“Before the year 2000, it was almost unheard of to have rain down in the Front Range in winter,” Chambers says, “and it’s happening, at least this year.”
Shawcross knows it’s been warmer—he can feel it, just like you—but so far that doesn’t mean traditional Colorado winters are gone for good.
“There’s so much variability from year to year,” he says.
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Ways to Save Water at Home
Frank Kinder, water efficiency and sustainability manager for Northern Water, praises the little actions we take to save water, such as turning off our faucets while we brush our teeth. But he prefers to talk about these ways residents can make a big difference:
Read your water bill. It usually tells you if you’re using more or less water on average. If not, contact your utility provider and have them tell you.
Upgrade your appliances. If they’re older than 2006, they use a lot more water.
Swap out your irrigation. Smarter systems that water based on the weather are available now. Many can be controlled via an app on your smartphone, Kinder says. Your sprinkler heads and nozzles may also need to be replaced.
Use water-wise landscaping. Northern Water has a conservation garden at its Berthoud campus displaying native grasses and plants that require a lot less water to thrive. You can use them as inspiration.
Such landscaping doesn’t mean a yard full of rocks any longer, Kinder says.
“We actually don’t like to see that,” he says. “There are lots of plants that live well in our climate.”
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UC Hill grand opening. Photo courtesy of the University of Northern Colorado.
Water Conservation on the UC Hill
The three-and-a-half-acre slope north of the University of Northern Colorado’s University Center may be its most visible patch of land. It even has a nickname: the UC hill.
That’s precisely what excited Chris Bowers about taking on a project to convert the thirsty Kentucky bluegrass into natural buffalo grass. It also scared him.
Bowers is UNC’s first manager of energy and sustainability. He was hired in 2022 to help the university become more environmentally friendly. This project was a natural fit: UNC used more than two million gallons of water (enough to fill three Olympic-sized swimming pools) every year to keep that small patch green.
But buffalo grass takes a couple years before it looks presentable. Bowers calls it an “awkward teenager stage.” When the city tried a similar transition at the popular Bittersweet Park, there were so many complaints about the “dead grass” that the city had to switch some areas back to bluegrass. So Bowers put up signs at UNC preaching patience. The city even helped fund the project with a $630,000 grant.
“I can communicate really well to students and staff,” Bowers says, “but I would say the majority who will see this are not them. Residents can drive by and say, ‘Why does that look terrible?’”
The signs serve a dual purpose: Bowers hopes they educate the public about alternatives to thirsty bluegrass and encourage residents to install their own water-saving landscapes. He says this year’s warm, dry winter may also serve as a sign that it’s time to think about other alternatives.
“I hate to be in ‘I told you so’ mode,” Bowers says, “but we want to be an example of how it can be done.”
